Yes, you should give a sh*t about undecided voters

As a former campaign staffer, I often find myself discussing politics with progressive activists who share my passion, if not my professional experience. The most contentious discussions lately are all about undecided voters.

My job as a campaign worker was to find ways to persuade undecided voters and to encourage unlikely voters to vote. When you volunteer for a campaign as a door-knocker or phone banker, that’s what someone like me is asking you to do. When you donate to a campaign, you’re paying for someone like me to talk to undecided voters and unlikely voters. Everything a campaign does is to convince and mobilize those who need convincing and mobilizing. We aren’t doing it because it’s good for our health — if that was the motivating factor, we probably would have gone into sales or marketing. We’re doing it because that’s how you win elections, and because winning elections changes lives.

And yet, when I bring this up, I spend most of my time arguing with passionate progressives about whether or not undecided voters exist, or, if they do exist, whether or not their voice should even count. If we get past that, we end up arguing about who these voters are, and why they’re undecided.

Yes, they exist. As many as one in ten American voters have not made up their mind and could vote for either candidate. A similar number could conceivably flip from the candidate they’re supporting to another. That’s twenty percent of votes that are potentially up for grabs. These people exist, and they get just as much say in this election as you or me. You can be mad about it if you want. You can be disappointed in the societal problems that make this the case. You cannot ignore them and say that you’re doing everything you can to win this election.

Look, I get the frustration. I’m a partisan, too. I’ve only voted for Democrats, and I’ve spent endless hours working to elect the same. There’s never been a point in my adult life when I was not somehow engaged in that fight, and I don’t see that changing. I’m about as far away from “undecided” as you’ll ever find. It is difficult for me to understand the thinking of someone so different from me in this respect.

And yet, I know that they’re there, and I know that their voice matters. Even with the unique landscape of the 2020 election, ten percent has the ability to change this race. Ten percent, if they break for President Trump, could bring us a repeat of 2016. Ten percent, if they break for Vice President Biden, is the difference between knowing the results on Election Day or a week after. It’s the difference between a blue Texas and a red Texas. It’s the difference between winning and losing state legislatures across the country. It’s the difference between a weak administration that will have to tack to the center to keep power and one that can lead the nation towards bold new policy positions on health care, the environment, and criminal justice reform.

If we just ignore these people out of frustration, we won’t get very far. We need to understand them and understand why they’re undecided or unlikely to vote.

Who is undecided?

There’s a trend on social media to cast those who do not vote as privileged. This focuses on a subset of usually educated, usually white, usually left-leaning folks who turn out to vote for candidates like Senator Sanders in the primary and then refuse to vote for the nominee in November. We (rightly) label many of these individuals as greatly privileged, willing to let their ideals get in the way of supporting the better candidate on the ballot. They can afford to do this, we say, because they don’t have to live with the constant problems heaped on those without such a background.

If you spend any time on Twitter, you’ve probably seen voters that match that description. They’re out there, but they’re only slightly more common than unicorns. Most undecided voters look nothing like this at all.

Pew Research released a comprehensive survey of voting trends in the 2016 election. They looked at voting records and talk to people, voters and non-voters. They found that “nonwhites made up nearly half of nonvoters, but only a quarter of voters.” They also found that 51% of the non-voting population had a High School diploma or less, and 56% reported a family income less than $30,000 per year

Does this sound like a group ignoring issues because they’re too privileged to care?

Marginal voters are overwhelmingly not people with a surplus of privilege. They don’t vote because they are not satisfied with their options. They often do not feel that either party has done a good job of reaching out to them and speaking to their issues. According to another 2017 Pew survey: “The unregistered were more likely to say they do not vote because they dislike politics or believe voting will not make a difference, while people who are registered but vote infrequently say they do not vote more often because they are not informed enough about the candidates or issues.”

Indeed, the general disdain for undecided and unlikely voters comes from a place of privilege and is marked by a pernicious elitism that pervades many progressive circles. I’m a hyper-engaged and hyper-partisan voter, but I didn’t emerge as such through some magical parthenogenesis. I became what I am because of my experiences, my upbringing, and my education. One way or another, we all got where we are because of our environments. I was raised in a family where politics were discussed at the dinner table, I had teachers who challenged my beliefs and made me defend them, and I had opportunities to pursue an education that further informed these beliefs and gave me the foundation upon which I am still building.

A decade later, I have a steady income, all of those years of experiences, all of that education, and it’s easy for me to make up my mind. Most of the work required to come to an informed opinion is already done. It’s easy for me to keep up to date on the issues and news of the day because I have the time to do so. It’s easy for me to see how the issues affect me because I’m part of that middle class white male demographic that has always been assured of our place in the discourse. It’s easy for me to learn about candidates because I already learned how to identify good sources. It’s easy for me to vote because I know all of the rules.

This isn’t the case for everyone. We are all informed by our backgrounds. Some, like me, leaned into them. Others had to fight to overcome them. Others stayed right where they started. Had I been raised by a banker rather than a Berkeley hippie, I might be a Republican. Had I been raised in a family that didn’t care at all about politics, I might have been a marginal voter. Instead, the world around me conspired to form me into the person that I am. When we simply dismiss undecided voters as beyond reaching, we’re showing a form of elitism that discounts the real experiences that formed them.

A person isn’t lesser because they don’t follow politics with the fervor of an activist. They aren’t dumb because they aren’t easily convinced to join either side. We aren’t better than them because we have the background, the past experiences, the personal connections that motivated us to roll up our sleeves. Nor does any of that mean that their vote doesn’t count, or that we shouldn’t be willing to go out and earn their votes.

Republicans have spent decades doing everything they can to suppress votes. They pass restrictive voter ID laws that disproportionately disenfranchise people of color, they remove polling places in low-income communities, and they actively engage in messaging strategies that are designed to deter Black people from voting. These tactics only work on individuals who are already unlikely to vote. We rightly call these attacks out as abhorrent while simultaneously saying that the same people are too stupid to make up their minds. They’re different from us — not dumber or smarter, not better or worse, not more or less compassionate. Just different, and as diverse as any other group. There are, however, some things that stand out as trends among this group, and it’s worth taking some time to understand those trends.

What makes them different?

There are fewer undecided voters this year than ever before. This doesn’t mean that their impact is smaller than in the past; as discussed above, they still have the power to change the election. Their smaller numbers and greater isolation, however, means that they are harder and more expensive for campaigns to reach.

Undecided voters, as a rule, don’t follow politics as closely as those who have already made up their minds. They tend to get their news sporadically, following major events in the campaign like debates or conventions. While many of us follow the news cycle as it breaks, an undecided voter is less likely to hear of any one particular story. This is especially true in an age when the news cycle never stops or slows. Not that long ago, you could learn just about everything you needed to know by reading the paper in the morning and watching the news at night. Now those methods barely cover the most important headlines of the moment, and even a 24-hour news cycle will miss many important stories.

An undecided voter is not absorbing nearly as much breaking news. They are less likely to catch the key events covered on the nightly news, let alone the hundreds of less prominent headlines breaking throughout the political press on a given day. They are more likely to get their information second hand, through places like social media. While some of us try to curate our social media feed so we’ll see news and analysis from reliable sources as it breaks, a more casual consumer of political information may only see something that breaks through to trending. While some of us may dig into those trending stories to learn more, most undecideds will not read more than the headline. It’s not because they’re too dumb to tell good information from bad — it’s because it isn’t their top concern, for any number of reasons.

An effective modern campaign seeks to find the best message to influence the right people and tries to get that message to them through as many avenues as possible. Your candidate’s speeches should line up with their media interviews, which should align with their ads on TV and the internet. All of these should line up with the “rap” used by the folks knocking on doors and the fliers they’ll leave with the voters they talk to. The most effective single tool, though, is person-to-person conversations. In a normal year, much of this takes place through volunteer canvassers and phonebankers.

This is not a normal year, but that doesn’t mean that person-to-person conversations have gone the way of drinking in crowded bars. We all have the ability to reach undecided and unlikely voters in our lives, and we can do better than any stranger knocking on their door ever could. While some of their information is coming from traditional media or paid ads (which they probably don’t trust), most of it is coming from social media (which they probably shouldn’t trust). We can stand out from the crowd by just calling them, or having a (socially distant) beer with our neighbors.

We need to win this election. If we’re to avoid the worst, we need to win it big. That means that we need to be willing to set our misconceptions and stereotypes about these citizens aside and try to bring them on board.

Why don’t they care?

The ugliest misconception about undecided and unlikely voters is that they do not care about their fellow citizens. This is simply not the case. If you spend some time with them, you’ll find that they can be just as compassionate as anyone else. They’re loving spouses, parents, siblings, and neighbors. They just aren’t politically engaged.

If asked, many will tell you that they don’t follow politics because they don’t think politicians speak for them. They may say that politics is so divisive and ugly, not something for polite discussion. They might admit that they just don’t know enough about the issues, or they’ll tell you that all politicians are the same.

I’d bet that you have thought one more of these things, too. I know I have.

If we are going to reach these potential voters, we need to meet them where they are. We need to understand what is keeping them, as an individual, from making a decision. This means asking questions and actively listening to their answers.

• Do you know who you’ll vote for?
• Why haven’t you made up your mind?
• Is there anything you don’t like about Biden?
• What do you think about Trump, in general?

You’ll hear things in response to these questions that might be frustrating. You may hear disinformation that you’ve seen debunked a hundred times. You’ll need to be able to respond calmly, civilly. This isn’t an argument or a debate to be won; it’s a discussion, a conversation among friends and equals. Actively listen with a sympathetic ear — don’t just wait for your turn to shoehorn in some canned talking point.

Above all else, don’t fall into the trap of only talking about the negatives. Those who avoid politics often do so because they can’t stand the rabid partisanship. They see the ad wars firing up across TV and radio, and they’re discouraged from getting involved. While many of us are more fired up when we see a particularly damning negative message, undecided or unlikely voters are often looking for a reason to vote for someone, not just a reason to vote against our opponent.

This does not mean that you can’t mention the problems with Trump — it just means that you may need to readjust your balance. Currently, I see many partisans spending all or almost all of their time talking about the failings of President Trump, and nearly no time explaining why they are voting for Biden. For many undecideds, the problems with Trump are not nearly enough. If they don’t pair that with liking Biden, they’d just as soon stay home. That’s where the contrast message comes into play.

A contrast message, as its name implies, is a political messaging tactic that sets up a contrast between two candidates. It touches on the bad things about our opponent by highlighting the great things about our candidate. In a well-crafted contrast message, negatives are always paired with a contrasting positive. “Here’s why President Trump is unfit for office, and here’s why Biden is better suited.”

Contrast messages work particularly well with unengaged voters. Polling shows that, even recently, many undecideds don’t know enough about Joe Biden. Anecdotally, I’ve had several conversations with even firm Biden voters who don’t know really understand his beliefs or background. They know a lot about Trump’s innumerable flaws, but they’re surprised to hear about some of Biden’s bold progressive stands throughout his career. I’ve had multiple conversations with progressive LGBT voters who didn’t remember how Biden all but forced then-President Obama to take a public stand in favor of gay marriage, during a time when very few major politicians were willing to do so. They see Biden as a compromise candidate, which is true to an extent, but dismiss his progressive bona fides.

If even some Biden supporters aren’t fully aware of his positions, what should we really expect from an unengaged, undecided, unlikely voter?

Contrast messages are a perfect way to counteract this, allowing us to educate voters about Biden while still keeping part of the focus on Trump’s record. Some examples:

• Joe Biden has been extremely careful on the campaign trail during the pandemic, and clearly values the opinions of doctors and scientists. President Trump, on the other hand, hasn’t even learned a lesson from his own time with COVID.
• Donald Trump says that he wants to protect preexisting conditions and provide health care, all while his administration is trying to overturn the Affordable Care Act in court. Biden helped pass that law when he was Vice President and has a real plan to improve it if he becomes president.
• Joe Biden is someone who cares about people, and his campaign has made a real effort to listen to Black voters in the wake of George Floyd’s murder. Donald Trump, meanwhile, just tries to divide people, and won’t even condemn hate groups.
• We’ve all been hurt by the pandemic in some way, and we could all use another stimulus. Trump and the Republicans in the Senate won’t negotiate at all and are just pretending the economic and health impacts don’t exist. If Biden wins and the Democrats win the Senate, they’ll get much-needed help out to the millions of Americans who need it.

Each of these can easily be expanded to cover all of the differences between the candidates on individual issues. Drill down on the pandemic response: Trump mocks people for wearing masks, Biden always wears one. Trump holds massive rallies that have even resulted in deaths among his supporters, Biden knows that isn’t responsible. Trump ignores doctors and experts unless it suits him, and Biden is always willing to learn from those who know more than he does. Trump has never had a coherent plan for dealing with this pandemic. Biden knows exactly what to do when he takes office.

We can even use this formula on the more personal and personality-based questions: the difference between a loving father and husband in Joe Biden and the trainwreck that is the Trump family is quite stark. Joe Biden came from a working-class background in Scranton, PA, and Donald Trump grew up the son of a millionaire businessman and slumlord.

You’ll notice that I’m not giving out a script for talking to these voters, but a framework and a way to think about these conversations. A campaign might give a script to a volunteer because it’s the easiest way to connect to broad groups of marginal voters when you’re knocking on door after door. That’s not what we’re after here. We’re trying to have conversations with the marginal voters in our lives — friends, family, colleagues. We know these people. We have conversations with them about any number of things. We don’t need a short and scripted conversation, we just have to have an idea in our head as to how best approach the topic.

More importantly, we can personalize the message. We know if they’re out of work because of the pandemic. We know if they’ve lost a loved one. We may know if they have a pre-existing condition that is covered under the ACA. We know their values, what’s important to them, and what might bring them to pull the lever for Biden. Tailor your approach to them as a person. And, above all else, treat them with respect. Just because they’re undecided doesn’t mean they’re dumb. It doesn’t mean they don’t care about the same things you do. It doesn’t mean they’re aloof and above the process. They’re citizens, they’re members of our community, and they deserve to have their voices heard.

We, as engaged and informed voters, have a responsibility to our country and our fellow Americans to help them come to an informed decision. This isn’t always easy, it isn’t always fun. Sometimes it’s a test of patience or our own knowledge. It can be hard, scary, and frustrating. Many things worth doing are. We have less than two weeks left.

Let’s put our backs into it.